Nigeria’s aviation sector recorded a sharp slowdown in growth in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by only 2.88 per cent year-on-year, as passengers continued to grapple with rising domestic airfares, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said.

According to the NBS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report for Q3 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of air transport declined steeply from 30.60 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 and 57.21 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 2.88 per cent in the third quarter.

The report, however, showed that despite the weakened growth rate, the sector’s output value increased. Air transport GDP at current basic prices rose from N78.71 billion in the third quarter of 2024 to N80.98 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.

In the first quarter of 2025, air transport output expanded from N67.28 billion in Q1 2024 to N105.77 billion, while in the second quarter it grew from N28.59 billion in 2024 to N37.35 billion in 2025.

A quarter-on-quarter analysis highlighted the volatility in the aviation industry. The size of the sector contracted by about 64.7 per cent between Q1 and Q2 2025, falling from N105.77 billion to N37.35 billion, before rebounding sharply in Q3, when output surged by about 116.8 per cent to N80.98 billion.

Nevertheless, because growth comparisons are measured against the corresponding quarters of the previous year, the year-on-year nominal growth rate continued to decline progressively from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and further to 2.88 per cent in Q3.

The data also indicated that air transport’s contribution to the overall economy remained marginal. The sector accounted for 0.07 per cent of total GDP in Q3 2025, slightly lower than the 0.08 per cent recorded in Q3 2024. Its share stood at 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 and dropped to 0.04 per cent in Q2 of the same year.

In contrast, the broader economy continued to record nominal expansion. GDP at current basic prices increased from N96.16 trillion in Q3 2024 to N113.59 trillion in Q3 2025. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose from N79.51 trillion in Q1 2024 to N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, and from N84.48 trillion in Q2 2024 to N100.73 trillion in Q2 2025.

Real GDP figures for the aviation sector showed a gradual recovery from contraction. Air transport recorded negative real growth throughout 2024, contracting by 9.51 per cent in Q1, 11.18 per cent in Q2 and 9.90 per cent in Q3.

In 2025, the sector returned to positive territory, though growth remained modest. Real growth stood at minus 0.81 per cent in Q1, improved to 6.34 per cent in Q2, and eased to 1.60 per cent in Q3.

Overall, the NBS figures suggest that while the aviation industry recorded strong year-on-year nominal growth at the beginning of 2025, the pace slowed significantly by the third quarter, even as output and contribution to GDP stayed above 2024 levels.

The slowdown coincides with persistent increases in domestic airfares, raising concerns over the sustainability of growth amid high operating costs and weakened passenger demand.

Amid growing public outrage over the sharp rise in ticket prices ahead of the festive season, the Senate recently summoned the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr Festus Keyamo, alongside key stakeholders in the aviation industry for an emergency interface.

The action followed a motion sponsored by Sen. Buhari Abdulfatai, who warned that soaring airfare levels posed a threat to national mobility and could severely disrupt end-of-year travel plans for millions of Nigerians.

Lawmakers cited reports indicating that one-way fares on several domestic routes, particularly flights to the South-South and South-East, had risen by as much as 200 per cent, with ticket prices exceeding N300,000, compared to an average of about N120,000 before the Yuletide rush.

A market survey of airline booking platforms also confirmed fare increases of more than 150 per cent compared with pre-holiday prices, intensifying concerns among travellers already burdened by inflation and rising transport costs.

Contributing to the debate on the Senate floor, Abdulfatai said complaints from Nigerians suggested that domestic air travel was rapidly becoming unaffordable, noting that one-way fares from Abuja to Lagos now ranged between N400,000 and N600,000.

He stressed the need for urgent engagement with relevant stakeholders, saying immediate measures must be taken to address the situation before the festive period.