Nigeria’s inflation rate could ease in 2026 if the naira remains stable and domestic food supply improves, an economic expert has said.

Oyinkansola Aregbeseola, Investment Associate at AAG Capital, told ARISE TV on Thursday that the “bull case” scenario could see inflation drop to about 13 per cent, provided macroeconomic conditions remain favourable.

Aregbeseola highlighted the exchange rate as a crucial factor in price stability, noting that a stronger naira, projected around ₦1,300 to the US dollar, would reduce imported inflationary pressures.

She also pointed to the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as a factor complicating headline inflation data, adding that the NBS would now provide both raw and normalised figures for better clarity.

The expert outlined three potential inflation pathways for 2026:

• Base Case: Inflation at 14.6 per cent if the naira trades around ₦1,450/$.

• Bull Case: Inflation falls to 13 per cent with stronger currency, improved security, and increased agricultural output.

• Bear Case: Inflation rises to 16 per cent if insecurity and food supply disruptions persist.

Aregbeseola stressed the link between national security and agricultural productivity, noting that instability in farming belts could disrupt harvests and fuel price increases.

She added that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is likely to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy until more consistent inflation data becomes available.

Recent trends indicate moderating food prices and relative stability in the foreign exchange market, which could support disinflation. However, analysts warn that energy price volatility, logistics challenges, and insecurity remain potential risks to maintaining lower inflation.