The Nigerian naira maintained relative stability against the United States dollar in early trading this week amid mixed signals from the foreign exchange (FX) market and ongoing investor interest in the local currency.
Data monitored on Tuesday, 6 January, showed the naira exchanging around ₦1,431 to the dollar at the official window, reflecting a modest improvement from prior sessions and continued resilience following positive momentum from 2025.
Analysts said that although the official market remains stable, the parallel or black market continues to quote weaker rates, with bureau de change operators in major cities reporting dollar prices between ₦1,495 and ₦1,510, underscoring a persistent spread between formal and informal market segments.
Observers attributed the relative calm in the official FX market to sustained Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interventions, improved dollar inflows and ongoing foreign portfolio interest following last year’s reforms.
ECONOMIC FACTORS ON FX PRESSURE
The naira’s performance comes against a backdrop of renewed foreign exchange demand, particularly from importers and manufacturers restocking ahead of the first quarter. Market participants noted that post-festive trading activity has contributed to modest upside pressure on the dollar across both official and informal segments.
Despite these pressures, the naira closed 2025 with its first annual gain in over a decade, appreciating by about 7.4 per cent against the dollar, according to official Central Bank of Nigeria figures. This marked a symbolic reversal of the depreciation trend that dominated much of the past decade.
Business confidence has also shown signs of improvement, with surveys indicating positive sentiment among domestic firms driven by expectations of stronger naira performance and enhanced operating conditions in 2026.
INVESTOR AND POLICY WATCH
Market strategists continue to monitor global and domestic drivers of FX volatility. Recent commentary highlighted potential external pressures from broader dollar strength in international markets, tied to macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical developments, which could influence naira performance in the short term.
CBN policies aimed at deepening liquidity and improving price discovery in the FX market are also under scrutiny. Policymakers have reiterated commitments to maintain orderly conditions while balancing demand and supply dynamics.
OUTLOOK
While the outlook for the naira remains cautiously optimistic, analysts warn that the divergence between official and parallel market rates and evolving external influences could shape exchange rate trends in the coming weeks.
Continued CBN market interventions and robust foreign exchange inflows will be key to sustaining recent gains.